Citing the pandemic, war, and climate change, the Norwegian government is building a stockpile of three months’ supply of wheat to bolster national food security.[1] Together with Finland and Sweden, they’re deepening cooperation to ensure that supplies of critical goods are available in times of crisis.[2] For years the Nordic governments have been leading society-wide efforts (including with families, communities, sports clubs, and businesses) to deepen national resilience and preparedness. Finland’s foresight is also reflected in being the first country to administer bird flu (H5N1) vaccinations for key workers in view of the potential for a new pandemic.[3] China too is rapidly expanding its inventories of agricultural produce, energy and materials.[4]

In the UK, the House of Lords report- Preparing for Extreme Risks: Building a Resilient Society[5] made the case for a re-appraisal of the nature and scale of emerging risk.  It is part of a growing call for society to urgently build its capacities to prepare. This, despite limitations,[6] is having an impact. The UK National Resilience Framework[7] is now being implemented to enhance preparedness and response to all crises, be they from extreme weather, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, supply-chain failure, and interacting crises. The deputy prime minister in the last government, Oliver Dowden, sketched out the UK’s national resilience perspective and plans in a speech this May, noting that resilience needed to move “from something tucked away in government ... into something that is part of our everyday lives.”[8]

These national responses reflect a growing awareness that the world has entered a new era where our collective welfare will be exposed to escalating uncertainty, stresses and disruption. The last few years have been giving us a vivid taste of this transformation. It is one where accelerating drivers of risk from climate change; the growing likelihood of energy and food constraints and disruptions; pandemics; the reverberations from accelerating ecosystem destruction; deepening pressures within the financial system; the rapid deployment of high-risk technologies; fracturing social cohesion, growing international tensions and war cannot be considered in isolation. They are among multiple intensifying, interacting, and often mutually amplifying drivers of risk.

This is only one part of how risk is expressed, it is connected to how we live. We experience their impact through the vital organs of a global metabolism. They include the supply-chains that feed supermarkets, farms and businesses. The critical infrastructures that provide electric power, water, sanitation, communications, and economic production. The financial systems that allow trade and investment to proceed.  The societal cooperation and trust that protects our welfare, security and capacity to respond to problems. Entwined, they sustain the functionality of global society. When things work, as has been overwhelmingly the case up until now, we take them for granted. But they are potentially very vulnerable.

An example of this vulnerability can be seen in the recent global disruption from the CrowdStrike software update that impacted banking, travel, and commerce across the world.  Another is the warning from the Energy Security Emergency Group (ESEG) in 2022 that a disruption to the supply of diesel could risk undermining the states capacity ‘to maintain societal function and civil order’.[9] Diesels’ critical role in transport and agriculture mean the consequences of severe shortages could rapidly cascade through our Just-in-Time economy causing severe disruption across all aspects of our lives. A wide-area blackout could undermine food supply, water and sanitation, communications, healthcare, transport, finance and work. There are countless similar weakest links through the global economy where the absence of just one thing or a congruence of conditions could have very harmful, and potentially irreversible, cascading consequences.

Our emerging reality is one where diverse intensifying stresses and shocks transmit, interact, and amplify across the globe. It’s one where societal vulnerabilities are exposed, so generating new sources of disturbance. Where stressed and shocked societies can become more vulnerable and less resilient to what comes next. The focus on facets of this predicament obscures the reality that it is their convergence that matters.

There are two implications. Firstly, the potential risk to societal function and continuity is far greater than the sum of the parts. This means serious and unprecedented crises could emerge much earlier and hit much harder than if we were to consider just climate change, say, on its own. Secondly, the rising social and economic impacts of stresses and crises could undermine our capacity to mitigate risks, adapt and build resilience. This means we’re potentially working against time.

Other countries are recognising that old sureties cannot be taken for granted and are responding. Meanwhile, discussions on systemic risk and response in Ireland have been fragmented, complacent, or kept out of sight in the Department of the Taoiseach/Defence/Finance, and the Office of Emergency Planning. The National Risk Assessment[10] and the National Adaptation Framework (NAF)[11] for climate change, the Energy Security assessment,[12] and new Defence Policy Review[13] all acknowledge growing systemic risk. But they all underestimate systemic risk, and fail strategically because of their siloed focus.

Our understanding of risk, the resilience of society, and our capacity to respond in a crisis evolved in, and reflect our experience of the past. There is now an accelerating gap between the risks to which Irish society is being exposed to, and our ability to deal with the consequences. We can hope for and work towards better futures, but we also need to make significant preparations for the consequences of this rapidly transforming world.

Two principles can guide Irelands’ response. The first, an All-hazards focus, is how we can prepare for the impacts of chronic and acute crises on society, irrespective of the particular causes. Whether it’s due to a prolonged blackout or catastrophic flooding, or a combination of things, a common denominator is disruption to the supply of essential goods and services, and our ability to look after each other. Preparedness and resilience are about how we can weather those crises and support each other to get back on our feet.

It is recognised that in times of deep shocks and chronic stress, government capacities can be overwhelmed. Hence the need for citizens, communities, civil society organisations, the private and public sector to play their part. This second principle is Whole-of-Society preparedness which draws upon the skills, local and contextual knowledge and experience of everyone. Civil society in Ireland is already demonstrating its concerns through a growing food security movement.[14] Preparedness and resilience building can give us focus and agency in a time of uncertainty. It can help build communities of discovery and shared endeavour that supports social cohesion in times where it may be increasingly tested.

By not comprehensively addressing our transforming risk environment, our political system is avoiding its most fundamental obligation, to address critical threats to the safety of the nation. The forthcoming election gives all the political parties an opportunity to put forward an integrated national preparedness and resilience policy in their manifestos.

 We are entering an era of profound change. Risk and resilience are going to impinge upon all of our lives, whether wanted or not, in whatever roles we play in life. The question is how well we rise to meet the challenge. As Dr Michael Ryan of the WHO said at the beginning of the Covid pandemic- “the greatest error is not to move”. It’s now well past time.

References

[1] https://fortune.com/2024/06/25/norway-stockpiling-grain-prepping-for-unthinkable-world-end/

[2] https://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/nordic-resilience

[3] https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/finland-start-bird-flu-vaccinations-humans-2024-06-25/

[4] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/why-is-xi-jinping-building-secret-commodity-stockpiles?

[5] Preparing for Extreme Risks: Building a Resilient Society. UK House of Lords select committee on risk assessment and planning (Dec 2022). https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5802/ldselect/ldrisk/110/110.pdf

[6] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/29/uk-desperately-exposed-to-cyber-threats-and-pandemics-says-minister

[7] UK Government Resilience Framework HM Government (Dec 2022) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1131163/UKG_Resilience_Framework_FINAL_v2.pdf

[8] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/deputy-prime-minister-speech-on-resilience-22-may-2024

[9] https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/08/24/fuel-shortages-may-threaten-states-capacity-to-maintain-societal-function-and-civil-order/

[10] https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/311d3-government-publishes-national-risk-assessment-2023-outlining-top-strategic-risks-facing-ireland/

[11] https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/df8e2-national-climate-change-adaptation-framework/

[12] https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/5c499-energy-security-in-ireland-to-2030/

[13] https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/78a1f-defence-policy-review-2024/

[14] https://www.arc2020.eu/feeding-ourselves-gathering-2023-another-rural-is-possible/